Indian Stock Market

I am betting on sensex and nifty will test their recent lows of 9900 and 2800 respectively. The reasons for the same are :

1) If US fed hikes rate on June 29th, it may cause huge unwinding of FII's positions across all emerging markets
2) Japan is also about to raise it's interest rate from the current 0% for the first time in such a long time.
3) Commodities are for sure in a large structural bull market but for the time being they need to take a breather.

Apart from these Global factors, Sensex is trading at a P/E of 17 currently, which may not be expensive but it is not cheap either.

MF's of India who were able to garner quite a huge sum of some 10K crore through NFO's have no more money to deploy as they have already put some 10K crore in this market during the recent correction. So if now FII's start selling then there will not be any MF support anymore.

Technically speaking also as most of the techincal experts say "we are in intermediate downtrend and at best we can remain rangebound for some time to come"

Inflation rose from 3.57% to 4.32%. Also for the first time since crude crossing $70 a barrel, we are going for hike in petrol and diesel. This will invariably push the price of key things and will lead to higher inflation.

Quote of the day : It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine--that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon.